Tuesday, March 25, 2008 2:18:34 PM
The Bottom Line takes a first look at the polling trends for 2008
Thanks to 270towin.com for their interactive map.
The above map purposes a McCain-Obama matchup. The conventional "wisdom" in most Mainstream Media circles is that Obama will be a better general election candidate for the Democrats than Hillary Clinton would be.
Not true according to recent polling data. Rassmussen Reports, the most highly regarded polling agency, gives McCain a 9-point edge (50-41) in their most recent head to head with Obama (1745 LV, 4 day tracking), while McCain's lead over Clinton is 5 points (48-43).
Zogby Research (1004 LV) also shows McCain beating Obama by 6 points (46-40) and Clinton by 8 (48-40). The average of these two likely voters polls shows McCain with an average lead over Obama of 48% - 40.5%, while McCain leads Clinton in likely voters by a margin of 48% - 41.5%.
Under this scenario, Even if Obama were to win 60% of the undecided voters, McCain would still win by a comfortable 53%-47% margin.
Given this margin, here is our first analysis of the 2008 race:
McCain 328 Electoral Votes
Obama 210 Electoral Votes
McCain accomplishes this by holding virtually all of the red states George W. Bush won in 2004. Virginia and Ohio stay in the GOP column, and New Hampshire, Pennsylvania (where McCain currently has a lead) and Michigan (ditto) fall to McCain.
If McCain were to split the late undecideds 50-50 with Obama, in this scenario it would give him a 54%-45% margin, more than enough to turn the contest into a rout, with likely Wisconsin, Minnesota, and/or Oregon falling into GOP hands. That kind of margin would also likely help Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Gordon Smith (Ore.) retain their Senate seats.
More analysis to come. Stay Tuned.
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